Cork North-West

Quick facts:

  • 3-seater
  • Sitting TDs: Aine Collins, (FG), Michael Creed (FG), Michael Moynihan (FF)
  • Ministerial representation: None
  • Population: 86,593
  • 2011 poll topper: Michael Creed, Fine Gael
  • Most likely loser: Aine Collins, Fine Gael
  • One to watch: John Paul O'Shea, Independent

With both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil each guaranteed one seat, the question - as always in this constituency - is who wins the third seat. There has never been a TD elected here who didn’t come from either of these parties, and as Fine Gael currently holds the third seat they can expect a counterattack from the old enemy.

Fianna Fáil had the edge in 2014, but much will be determined by the decision of John Paul O’Shea to run in this constituency may well change the dynamic of this contest. O'Shea got almost 4,400 votes in 2014 but while about 40% of that is in the Cork East constituency, his presence will seriously impact the chances of Áine Collins - of 'Lapgate' fame - being re-elected for Fine Gael.

While another factor is the final destination of the Sinn Féin votes which equated to half a quota in 2014. Would they really want to help Fianna Fáil win a seat?

Possible result is 2 FG, 1 FF.

Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as one seat apiece for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and an Independent - Councillor John Paul O'Shea and current Mayor of Cork County - upsetting the apple cart.