Davy says official Irish GDP is "divorced from reality"

As it estimates growth so far this year is higher than the official data suggests...

Ireland's economy grew by 6% last year, according to Davy, as the stockbrokers took aim at figures published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) last month.

The CSO pegged 2015's GDP at an enormous 26.3%, immediately meeting with criticism as leading business brains dubbing the results "leprechaun economics".

Davy analyst Conall Mac Coille has now called the CSO figures so "farcical and meaningless" as to undermine confidence in official statistics.

Davy's 6% verdict chimes with estimates also released by the National Treasury Management Agency this week.

In terms of the first six months of this year, Davy measures growth at 5%. Mac Coille noted that this growth was much higher than official GDP data, which had offered a 2.1% contraction in the first quarter of 2016.

The stockbrokers sees GDP slipping slightly again in the wake of the Brexit decision.

Mac Coille wrote:

"Looking forward, we are now monitoring short-term indicators closely for any negative impact from Brexit. Indeed, Ireland’s composite PMI fell to 56.5 in July, down sharply from 59.2 in June, but was still the strongest across the range of developed economies surveyed.

"Other indicators have remained robust. However, the next revision to our forecast for Irish GDP to grow by 4% in 2017 is likely to be down."