NAMA set for €4bn surplus, says Investec

All of the bad bank's original debt should be cleared this year...

NAMA set for €4bn surplus, says Investec

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The National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) will ultimately end up with a €4 billion surplus, according to Investec.

This is roughly 25% more than the agency's own latest estimates. It is on course to clear all of the €32bn in debt it originally took on later this year.

Writing in its latest Irish Economy Monitor, Investec's Philip O'Sullivan noted that its core equity value is already "just north of €3bn" and that it has a surplus of €469m which will be recognised as profit.

He said:

"We now believe that NAMA will deliver a surplus of €4bn to the Exchequer."

The Q2 monitor also showed healthy export activity firing the Irish economy to a strong start in 2017.

Exports to-date are up 10% year-on-year, with our trade surplus swelling 18% to €17.1bn. A 10% year-on-year decline in new car sales slowed the retail sector.

Housing completions shot up 24% year-on-year, while unemployment is at a nine-year low of 6.4%

O'Sullivan added:

"The Irish economy continues to show good momentum, with any concerns about foreign exchange related pressure on ‘big ticket items’ offset by a buoyant export performance."