Yates' Prediction: Labour and Fine Gael TDs to lose out to Sinn Féin Cllr in Cork South-Central

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Lorna Bogue, Jerry Buttimer, Simon Coveney, Mick Finn, Joe Harris, Elizabeth Hourihane, Ciaran Kenneally, Ciaran Lynch, Micheal Martin, Michael McGrath, Michael Mohally, Diarmaid Ó Cadhla, Jim OConnell, Donnchadh ÓLaoghaire, Fiona Ryan, Green Party, Fine Gael, Independent, Renua, Labour, Fianna Fáil, Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit, Sinn Féin, GE16, General Election, constituency, Cork-South Central

Donnchadh Ó'Laoghaire and Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams via Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire on Facebook

Labour TD Ciarán Lynch and Fine Gael Deputy Jerry Buttimer will lose their seats in Cork South-Central, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Simon Coveney (FG), Jerry Buttimer (FG), Ciarán Lynch (LAB), Micheál Martin (FF) and Michael McGrath (FF) 

Sinn Féin will instead take a seat for Cork County Councillor Donnchadh Ó'Laoghaire.

The other loss is accounted for by the cutting of one seat by the boundary commission.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Yates maintains voters will certainly elect one left-wing TD, and he is giving the seat to Ó'Laoghaire.

In a further surprise, Fianna Fáil's Micheál Martin and Michael McGrath will both be elected - but it will be McGrath who proves to be the more popular of the two with voters.

His election to the second seat will push party leader Martin into the third spot.

Cork South-Central constituency

This is a four seat constituency, down one seat after a review by the boundary commission.

All five high-profile sitting TDs are running for election - at least one of them will be disappointed.

All of the candidates here are under huge pressure.

Fine Gael would traditionally dominate in the well-off parts of the constituency. However, their candidate Jerry Buttimer is disadvantaged by some of the changes the boundary commission has made.

Similarly, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin will suffer as a result of constituency changes - but this area probably represents the party's strongest chance in the country, with two popular candidates. 

There are 15 candidates in the Cork South-Central constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one for Fine Gael, two for Fianna Fáil and one for Sinn Féin.

1. Simon Coveney (FG)

2. Michael McGrath (FF) 

3. Micheál Martin (FF)

4. Donnchadh Ó'Laoghaire (SF)

Minister Simon Coveney will top the poll.

Fianna Fáil's Michael McGrath will take the second seat, pipping his party leader Micheál Martin at the post and pushing him into the third spot.

Labour TD Ciarán Lynch will lose his seat, largely because of the cutting of one seat.

Meanwhile, the remaining sitting TD running here - Fine Gael's Jerry Buttimer - will also fail to take a seat. 

Most people are predicting two each for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil here, but Ivan Yates insists there will be one left-wing seat. It will go to Donnchadh Ó'Laoghaire of Sinn Féin, who will take the last seat in a surprise result.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Cork South-Central constituency page.

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