Yates' Prediction: Tánaiste to lose her seat in Dublin West

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Joan Burton, Dermot Casey, Jack Chambers, TJ Clare, Ruth Coppinger, Paul Donnelly, David McGuinness, Catherine Noone, Jo O'Brien, Roderic O'Gorman, Leo Varadkar, #GE16, General Election, Labour, Independent, Fianna Fáil, Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit, Sinn Féin, Fine Gael, Renua, Green Party, Dublin West constituency

Tanaiste and Labour leader Joan Burton during a visit to Shellybanks Educate Together National School in Ballsbridge, Dublin. Picture by: Brian Lawless / PA Wire/Press Association Images

Tánaiste Joan Burton will lose her seat in Dublin West, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Leo Varadkar (FG), Joan Burton (LAB), Ruth Coppinger (SP) and Joe Higgins (SP)

Two bye-elections in this constituency give an insight into voter feeling.

In the 2011 General Election Joan Burton topped the poll with 22%, but in the last bye-election Labour only won 5% of the vote for their candidate Lorraine Mulligan.

That bodes badly for Burton, who will have to engage in a bitter fight with Socialist Ruth Coppinger for the last seat in this constituency.

Despite a call to arms from Cabinet colleague Minister Leo Varadkar, who has asked his supporters to give Burton their number two vote, it will not be enough to carry her over the line.

Yates says: "This will be the biggest headline of the election - Joan Burton's loss will reflect the decimation of the Labour party this Friday".

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Dublin West constituency

This is a four seat constituency, unchanged by the constituency commission. However, some voters have been moved into or out of the area.

Three of the four sitting TDs are running for re-election.

Socialist Party stalwart Joe Higgins announced in 2014 that he would not run for election again.

This constituency has had two bye-elections since the last General Election in 2011.

Two Cabinet Ministers come from this constituency - Tánaiste Joan Burton and Minister for Health Leo Varadkar.

There are 11 candidates in the Dublin West constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one for Fine Gael, one Fianna Fáil, one Sinn Féin and one Socialist Party.

1. Leo Varadkar (FG)

2. Paul Donnelly (SF)

3. Jack Chambers (FF)

4. Ruth Coppinger (SP)

Fine Gael Minister Leo Varadkar could top the poll here. He is considered to be a potential Taoiseach in this constituency, and that is something that voters will approve of.

There is only one other certain seat here and it belongs to Paul Donnelly of Sinn Féin.

This popular probation officer topped the poll in the last bye-election but he proved to be transfer-unfriendly and lost out to Ruth Coppinger. Ivan Yates is predicting that Donnelly will make his breakthrough this time around, claiming the largest left-wing vote.

The third seat will go to Fianna Fáil's Jack Chambers. Despite enduring a messy selection process, according to the latest polls newcomer Chambers is canvassing well.

The last seat will be a bitter fight between Socialist Ruth Coppinger and Labour leader Joan Burton. Burton will lose her seat because Deputy Coppinger will mop up Joe Higgins' voter base.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Dublin West constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT