Yates' Prediction: Education Minister will lose her seat in Limerick City

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Nora Bennis, James Gaffney, Desmond Hayes, Sarah Jane Hennelly, Michael Noonan, Willie O'Dea, Kieran O'Donnell, Jan O'Sullivan, Cian Prendiville, Maurice Quinlivan, Denis Riordan, Independent, Green Party, Social Democrats, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Labour, Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit, Sinn Féin, #GE16, General Election, Limerick City constituency

Education Minister Jan O'Sullivan speaks to the media at St Nessan's Community College, Moylish Park, Limerick. Picture by: Niall Carson / PA Archive/Press Association Images

Minister for Education Jan O'Sullivan will lose her seat in Limerick City, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Michael Noonan (FG), Kieran O'Donnell (FG), Jan O'Sullivan (LAB) and Willie O'Dea (FF)

The Minister's failure will be a high-profile loss for Labour.

It will form just part of the party's dismal post-election picture. 

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Those predictions show losses for Labour nationwide.

Limerick City

This is a four seat constituency, unchanged by the boundary commission.

However, 11,000 voters have been moved back into the constituency.

This is a divided region, as often happens with urban areas. It has a mixed socio-economic profile - some working class areas, and some middle class areas.

Voters in different parts of the city consequently have different concerns but there will be a strong left vote.

Water charges are a key issue in this area.

All four sitting TDs - including two Cabinet Ministers - are running for re-election.

There are 11 candidates in the Limerick City constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as two for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil and one for Sinn Féin.

1. Michael Noonan (FG)

2. Maurice Quinlivan (SF)

3. Willie O'Dea (FF)

4. Kieran O'Donnell (FG)

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan has been a TD since 1981. He originally started out with Tom O'Donnell - his nephew Kieran O'Donnell (FG) has been working with constituency colleague Noonan since 2007.

Noonan will top the poll. O'Donnell will win a seat further down the winner's list.

Labour Minister Jan O'Sullivan will be eliminated. Because of the shift to the left in this constituency, she will lose out.

However, her seat will not go in a scrap with Sinn Féin's Maurice Quinlivan, despite predictions. 

In fact he Quinlivan is certain of a comfortable seat. According to Yates, there are two safe seats in this constituency - Noonan's and Quinlivan's.

Fianna Fáil's Wilie O'Dea is also sure of a seat, and will take the third spot.

Fine Gael's Kieran O'Donnell will take the final seat.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Limerick City constituency page.

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