Yates' Prediction: Denise Mitchell will take seat for Sinn Féin in Dublin Bay North

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, Tommy Broughan, Richard Bruton, Paul Clarke, Donna Cooney, Terence Flanagan, Jimmy Guerin, Sean Haughey, David Healy, Deirdre Heney, John Lyons, Michael MacDonncha, Finian McGrath, Denise Mitchell, Cian O’Callaghan, Michael OBrien, Proinsias OConarain, Naoise O’ Muiri, Averil Power, Stephanie Regan, Dublin Bay North, General Election, GE16, constituency, candidate, poll, vote

Sinn Féin's Dublin Bay North candidatas Denise Mitchell and Michael MacDonncha. Photo: via @cllr_mitchell on Twitter

Updated Feb 25th 2016 11.00

Sinn Féin candidate Denise Mitchell will win a seat in Dublin Bay North, not Michael MacDonncha - as previously forecast.

Newstalk's political pundit Ivan Yates is changing the prediction he gave for the outcome of Friday's election.

Yates gave the forecast as part of Newstalk's series of constituency predictions for the General Election.

He says: "They ran in the same area in the local elections and MacDonncha came out on top - but my Sinn Féin sources say Mitchell will be more voter-transfer friendly and will take the seat."

Newstalk is still calling the result as one for Fine Gael, two Independents, one Fianna Fáil and one for Sinn Féin.

1. Finian McGrath (IND)

2. Richard Bruton (FG)

3. Sean Haughey (FF)

4. Denise Mitchell (SF)

5. Tommy Broughan (IND)

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Dublin Bay North constituency page.

You can see the original article below.

 

Fianna Fáil will win back a seat in Dublin Bay North, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Richard Bruton (FG), Sean Kenny (LAB), Aodhan O'Riordain (LAB), Finian McGrath (IND), Terence Flanagan (REN) and Tommy Broughan (IND)

Fianna Fáil was wiped out here in 2011, they are fighting to get representation back in Charlie Haughey's old stomping ground.

Despite selection difficulties, and a less-than-ideal ticket, the party will succeed to win a seat for Sean Haughey.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Dublin Bay North

This is a new five seat constituency which takes the place of two former three seat constituencies Dublin Central, and Dublin North-East.

Five out of six of the sitting TDs in this originally wider region are running for re-election.

Labour's Sean Kenny TD has retired.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have both had their selection difficulties in this area.

Fine Gael headquarters chose Stephanie Regan for the ticket, but Naoise Ӓ Muiri beat Richard Bruton at the convention, so he was added to the ticket.

That leaves the government partner with three candidates where they probably would have preferred to run two. 

Fiann Fáil have also had their problems, after they selected Cllr Deirdre Heney to run against her long-time foe Sean Haughey.

Their situation was further complicated by the fact that Averil Power, who had been a Fianna Fáil Senator, defected to run as an Independent.

The count here will be complicated and will probably run well into Sunday night.

There are 20 candidates in the Dublin Bay North constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one for Fine Gael, two Independents, one Fianna Fáil and one for Sinn Féin.

1. Finian McGrath (IND)

2. Richard Bruton (FG)

3. Sean Haughey (FF)

4. Michael MacDonncha (SF)

5. Tommy Broughan (IND)

Independent Finian McGrath could top the poll.

It will be a toss-up between him and Fine Gael's Richard Bruton for that first seat - they represent the two safe seats in this election.

On balance, Ivan Yates is calling the third seat for Fianna Fáil's Sean Haughey.

For the fourth seat, eventually going to Michael MacDonncha (SF) - Editor of An Poblacht. He did very well in the local election and has the support base. Running mate Denise Mitchell (SF) is not out of the race there, and could still be in with a chance, but Yates favour MacDonncha.

Independent Broughan - formerly of Labour - will pick up votes on transfer and he will just about take the fifth seat. That win will come in spite of the fact that it might have been more advantageous to him to join the Social Democrats.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Dublin Bay North constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT