Yates' Prediction: Ring to pip Taoiseach to post, taking first seat in Mayo

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Dara Calleary, Lisa Chambers, Rose Conway-Walsh, Jerry Crowley, Michael Farrington, Sean Forkan, Peter Jordan, Enda Kenny, Stephen Manning, Tom Moran, Michelle Mulherin, Gerry O'Boyle, George O'Malley, Michael Ring, Margaret Sheehan, Kabal Uddin, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, Independent, Renua, Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit, Green Party, General Election, #GE16, Mayo constituency, candidate, poll, vote, seat

Fine Gael Minister of State Michael Ring at the launch of the Review of Tourism Policy in Dublin Castle in 2013. The review is the start of a comprehensive review of Ireland's tourism industry. Photo: Sam Boal/RollingNews.ie

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be the only parties to represent voters in Mayo, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Enda Kenny (FG), Michael Ring (FG), Michelle Mulherin (FG), John O'Mahoney (FG) and Dara Calleary (FF) 

In a further surprise, Michael Ring will pip Taoiseach Enda Kenny to the post to top the poll, though Kenny too is a certainty.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Mayo constituency

This is a four seat constituency, down one seat from five.

The constituency spans a huge area and includes the large urban centres of Westport and Ballina.

Mayo has yet to feel the recovery the East Coast is experiencing, with 52 units of property to let, boarded up or empty on Castlebar's Main Street today.

That reality is particularly stinging after Enda Kenny's comments at a weekend rally in Mayo that the people of Castlebar are "whingers" if they fail to consider our position today as positive.

Four of the five sitting TDs are running for re-election.

The fifth sitting TD, John O'Mahoney (FG), moved to the Galway West consituency after the redrawing of Mayo's constituency boundaries.

Fine Gael won four out of five seats here in 2011.

There are 16 candidates in the Mayo constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as two for Fine Gael, two for Fianna Fáil.

1. Michael Ring (FG)

2. Enda Kenny (FG)

3. Dara Calleary (FF)

4. Lisa Chambers (FF)

Three of the seats will go to sitting TDs, but the surprise will for for the fourth seat - which will go to Fianna Fáil's Lisa Chambers on transfers, handing them a second seat in the region. 

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Mayo constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT