Yates' Prediction: Minister Alex White will lose his seat in Dublin Rathdown

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Alan Daveron, Josepha Madigan, Catherine Martin, Peter Matthews, Sorcha Nic Cormaic, Shane Ross, Alan Shatter, Alex White, Mary White, Green Party, Independent, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, Renua, General Election, #GE16, constituency, Cavan-Monaghan, candidate, poll, vote, ballot, Friday February 26th, count

Dr Alex White at the launch of the Labour Party's Campaign to abolish the Seanad in the Merrion Hotel, Dublin in 2013. Picture by: Barry Cronin / PA Archive/Press Association Images

Minister Alex White (LAB) will lose his seat while The Green Party's Deputy Leader Catherine Martin will win a seat in the "group of death" Dublin Rathdown constituency, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Alan Shatter (FG), Olivia Mitchell (FG), Alex White (LAB), Shane Ross (IND) and Peter Mathews (IND)

This constituency will bring a major upset for the government parties - Labour's Alex White will lose his seat and Fine Gael will lose two seats.

Independent TD Peter Matthews, who previously represented Fine Gael, will not be able to defend his seat in - what is now a drastically reduced - three seat constituency.

Olivia Mitchell's retirement from politics will also prove fatal for Fine Gael.

The surprising forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Dublin Rathdown

This is a three seat constituency; Dublin Rathdown was formerly a five seater but it lost two seats in a review of constituency boundaries.

Dublin-Rathdown is the only constituency to lose two seats.

Four of the five sitting TDs are running for re-election.

Olivia Mitchell is retiring and will not run again.

There are nine candidates in the Dublin Rathdown constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one Independent, one Fine Gael and one for The Green Party.

1. Shane Ross (IND)

2. Alan Shatter (FG)

3. Catherine Martin (GP)

Independent Alliance representative Shane Ross will top the poll here.

Alan Shatter will take the second seat for Fine Gael, though that is not a popular prediction.

The third, and contentious seat, will go to the Deputy Leader of The Green Party Catherine Martin.

Fine Gael collapse

Back in 2011 Fine Gael won three seats here. This time around, top vote-getter Olivia Mitchell is not running and the constituency has lost two seats.

That, coupled with Peter Matthew's departure, will prove devastating for the party.

Yates is not confident about Josepha Madigan's chances for Fine Gael, though popular opinion would back her for a seat.

Newstalk's political pundit says Fine Gael will not manage to win more than one seat in this election.

Devastation for White

The "filleting" of the Dublin Rathdown constituency will have devastating implications for Alex White - he will lose his seat. 

Ivan Yates maintains Deputy White should have moved to Pat Rabbitte's old constituency of Dublin South-West when he announced his retirement.

Finally, Independent TD Peter Matthews will lose his seat because it is very hard for an Independent to win in a three seat constituency.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Dublin Rathdown constituency page.

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