Yates' Prediction: Fine Gael will lose two seats in Cavan-Monaghan

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Micheal Callaghan, Seán Conlan, Mike Durkan, Heather Humphries, Michael McDermott, Jimmy Mee, Caoimhghin O Caolain, Joe O Reilly, Aoife O'Connell, Kathryn Reilly, Emmett Smith, Brendan Smith, Niamh Smyth, Mary Smyth, John Wilson, Green Party, Independent, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, General Election, #GE16, constituency, Cavan-Monaghan, candidate, poll, vote, ballot, Friday February 26th, count

Sinn Fein Senator Kathryn Reilly, centre, at a Party photocall about the 1916 commemoration. Photo: /RollingNews.ie

Fine Gael will lose two seats in Cavan-Monaghan, handing Sinn Féin a major win - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates. 

Sitting TDs: Heather Humphries (FG), Joe O'Reilly (FG), Brendan Smith (FF), Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF) and Sean Conlon (IND)

Fine Gael's problems in Cavan-Monaghan reflect the party's problem nationwide.

They held three seats here previously. However, after Sean Conlon's decision to leave the party and operate as an Indpenedent the extent of the party's ambition is only two seats.

Fine Gael will win only one seat in Cavan-Monaghan.

Joe O'Reilly TD will lose his seat to Kathryn Reilly of Sinn Féin - giving the opposition party two seats in the area.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Cavan-Monaghan

This is a four seat constituency, but it used to be a five seat constituency.

Cavan-Monaghan lost one seat in a review of constituency boundaries.

Consequently, though all five sitting TDs are running for re-election, at least one is certain to lose out.

Notable here is the candidacy of Independent John Wilson, the garda whistleblower. However, Ivan Yates says he is not getting traction on the ground and will not succeed in his bid to be elected.

There are 15 candidates in the Cavan-Monaghan constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as two seats for Sinn Féin, one for Fine Gael and one for Fianna Fáil.

1. Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF)

2. Heather Humphries (FG) 

3. Brendan Smith (FF)

4. Kathryn Reilly (SF)

Fine Gael's vote here will collapse from three seats to one because of the loss of one physical seat, because Joe O'Reilly (FG) will not be re-elected, and because of Sean Conlon's (IND) decision to run as an Independent.

Conlon will not win a seat as an Independent. 

Seat breakdown

Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF) will top the poll, but he needs to move about 3,000 seats away from him and towards his running mate in order to secure her election.

Minister Heather Humphries (FG) will consolidate her position and will be comfortably elected to the second seat.

Former Agriculture Minister Brendan Smith (FF) will be re-elected to his safe seat.

For the fourth seat, Sinn Féin are going all out trying to target TD Joe O'Reilly's (FG) seat. He will fight it out for that seat with Kathryn Reilly (SF) - she will be successful.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Cavan-Monaghan constituency page.

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