Yates' Prediction: Sinn Féin will win a seat in Galway West

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

James Charity, Catherine Connolly, John Connolly, Mike Cubbard, Nicola Daveron, Patrick Feeney, Noel Grealish, Fidelma Healy Eames, Mary Hoade, Tommy Holohan, Sean Kyne, Hildegarde Naughten, Derek Nolan, Trevor O’Clochartaigh, John O’Mahony, Niall Ó' Tuathail, Eamon O'Cuiv, Ruairi O'Neill, Tommy Roddy, Seamus Sheridan, Independent, Fianna Fáil, Renua, Fianna Fáil, Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit, Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Green Party, candidat

Sinn Fein senator Trevor O'Clochartaigh. Photograph: Sasko Lazarov/RollingNews.ie

Sinn Féin will win a seat in Galway West, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Sean Kyne (FG), Brian Walsh (FG), Derek Nolan (LAB), Éamon Ó'Cuív (FF) and Noel Grealish (IND)

Senator Trevor Ӓ'Clochartaigh is expected to make his breakthrough for Sinn Féin. His campaign is generating a lot of chatter on the ground in Galway.

He will join two Independents and one TD each for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but it is another loss for Labour.

Derek Nolan (LAB) will not be returned. His votes will go to left-leaning Independent candidate Catherine Connolly. 

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Galway West

This is a five seat constituency. The number of seats here has not changed.

Four out of the five sitting TDs are running for re-election.

Fine Gael TD Brian Walsh is not running again.

This constituency is a microcosm of the whole country. Galway city represents urban problems such as homelessness and housing, but there are also rural areas and a manufacturing industry.

There are 20 candidates in the Galway West constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one Fianna Fáil, one Fine Gael, two Independents and one Sinn Féin.

1. Éamon Ó'Cuív (FF)

2. Sean Kyne (FG)

3. Noel Grealish (IND)

4. Catherine Connolly (IND)

5. Trevor Ӓ'Clochartaigh (SF)

Éamon Ó'Cuív (FF) will do well out of a change to the constituency's boundaries and will top the poll.

To the West, Sean Kyne (FG) will consolidate his position after his initial win in 2011, taking the second seat.

Independent Noel Grealish is strong in the east of the constituency and will take the third seat.

However, Labour's Derek Nolan's vote is expected to collapse and he will lose his seat.

Independent Catherine Connolly will soak up his votes. Formerly of Labour, she is a left of centre social democrat. She left the junior government party ten years ago.

Meanwhile, Sinn Féin Senator Trevor Ӓ'Clochartaigh will get the last seat in a dog fight with John O'Mahony.

He is based outside Galway city and unsuccessfully contested local elections in 2004 for Labour, and in 2009 for Sinn Féin.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Galway West constituency page.

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