Yates' Prediction: Fine Gael will win a new seat in Dublin North-West

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

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Noel Rock canvasses with Young Fine Gael member @NoelRock on Twitter

Labour will lose both of the seats it won in Dublin North-West in 2011, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: John Lyons (LAB), Dessie Ellis (SF) and Roisin Shortall (SD)

Labour got 44% of the vote last time out - this time they will lose their two seats, giving Fine Gael an opportunity to capitalise and take a new seat.

Róisín Shortall's defection to the Social Democrats is a major loss for the Labour party.

That, coupled with the inability of John Lyons, TD, to hold onto his seat, will lead to the decimation of the junior government party here.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Dublin North-West

This three seat constituency was largely unchanged in the review of the constituency boundaries, though some middle class neighbourhoods moved in. It is otherwise a generally socio-economically deprived area.

In 2011 it was the only constituency in the country not to elect a Fine Gael TD in the entire country, when two Labour TDs and one Sinn Féin TD were returned.

It is also the only constituency in the history of Dáil Éireann not to return either a Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil representative.

All three sitting TDs are running for re-election, though Deputy Shortall is running for the Social Democrats instead of Labour this time out.

On a side note, Independent candidate Cormac McKay is running both here, and in Dublin Central.

There are 11 candidates in the Dublin North-West constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one for Sinn Féin, one for the Social Democrats and one for Fine Gael.

1. Dessie Ellis (SF) 

2. Roisin Shortall (SD)

3. Noel Rock (FG)

Either Dessie Ellis (SF) or Roisin Shortall (SD) will top the poll; it is the third seat that will be contentious. 

Fine Gael is in a good position to capitalise when Labour's John Lyons loses his seat, posting a win for Noel Rock (FG).

Labour will not hold any seat in the constituency, because of that loss coupled with Roisin Shortall's defection to the Social Democrats.

Ivan Yates says it is becoming clear that Fine Gael will have a bad election, but will end up with a TD in every single constituency in the country.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Dublin North-West constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT