Yates' Prediction: Fianna Fáil to take Labour seat in Dublin Mid-West

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Patrick Akpoveta, John Curran, Frances Fitzgerald, Paul Gogarty, Christopher Healy, Lorraine Hennessy, Derek Keating, Gino Kenny, Haroon Khan, Tom Kivlehan, Clare Leonard, Anne-Marie McNally, Eoin Ó Broin, Francis Timmons, Joanna Tuffy, Independent, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Independent, Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit, Green Party, Social Democrats, Sinn Féin, Labour, #GE16, General Election, constituency, candidate, poll, vote, ballot, Dublin Mid-West

An election poster for Labour candidate Joanna Tuffy is seen on the Chapelizod bypass in Dublin. Picture by: Brian Lawless / PA Wire/Press Association Images

Updated Feb 25th 2016 11.20

Fianna Fáil will win a seat in Dublin Mid-West, contrary to earlier predictions.

Newstalk's political pundit Ivan Yates is changing the prediction he gave for the outcome of Friday's election.

Yates gave the forecast as part of Newstalk's series of constituency predictions for the General Election.

He now believes John Curran will win a seat for the opposition party, pipping Derek Keating of Fine Gael to the post.

The win will prevent the government party from winning two seats in the constituency.

Labour still loses its two existing seats in the area.

Newstalk is now calling the result one for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil, one for Sinn Féin and one for the Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit grouping.

1. Eoin Ó Broin (SF)

2. Frances Fitzgerald (FG)

3. Gino Kenny (AAA-PBP)

4. John Curran (FF)

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Dublin Mid-West constituency page.

You can see the original article below.

 

Labour will lose both of the seats it won in the 2011 election for Dublin Mid-West, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Frances Fitzgerald (FG), Derek Keating (FG), Joanna Tuffy (LAB) and Robert Dowd (LAB).

Incumbent TD for Labour Joanna Tuffy will lose her seat in less than a fortnight's time.

Neither will the party manage to replace retiring Deputy Robert Dowd.

Instead, Sinn Féin and the Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before Profit grouping will each take a seat.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Dublin Mid-West

This is a four seat constituency, unchanged in the review of constituency boundaries.

Three of the four sittings TDs are running for re-election, but Labour's Robert Dowd is not.

The government took 100% of the seats here last time, that performance will certainly not be repeated.

Socio-economically there is a huge divide from areas like Clondalkin, Ronanstown and Neilstown and the more leafy Lucan and Palmerstown end of the constituency.

There are 15 candidates in the Dublin Mid-West constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as two for Fine Gael, one for Sinn Féin and one for the Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before Profit grouping.

1. Eoin Ó Broin (SF)

2. Frances Fitzgerald (FG)

3. Gino Kenny (AAA-PBP)

4. Derek Keating (FG)

Fianna Fáil's John Curran will present a strong challenge to Derek Keating (FG) for the last seat, but it is Keating who will succeed. It will actually be the elimination of Labour's Joanna Tuffy that will help pull Derek Keating (FG) over the line on transfers. 

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Dublin Mid-West constituency page.

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