Yates' Prediction: Fianna Fáil's Hanafin to regain old seat in Dun Laoghaire

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

 Maria Bailey, Richard Boyd-Barrett, Frank Cronin, Cormac Devlin, Mary Hanafin, Carol Hunt, Mary Mitchell-O'’Connor, Shane O'Brien, Ossian Smyth, Carrie Smyth, Raymond Whitehead, Fine Gael, Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit, Renua, Fianna Fáil, Independent, Sinn Féin, Green Party, Labour, #GE16, General Election, poll, vote, ballot, candidate, constituency, prediction, profile, Dun Laoghaire, Newstalk, Breakfast

Former Education Minister Mary Hanafin speaking to the media at the Dublin West by-election count at the Citywest Hotel in Dublin. Picture by: Niall Carson / PA Archive/Press Association Images

Fianna Fáil's Mary Hanafin will regain her old seat in Dun Laoghaire, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Mary Mitchell-O'Connor (FG), Sean Barrett (FG), Eamon Gilmore (LAB), Richard Boyd-Barrett (AAA/PBP)

Former Minister Hanafin has been a controversial candidate for Fianna Fáil in recent years after a public spat with the leadership over her candidacy for the local elections in 2014.

Hanafin is associated with the party's old guard and she is considered to be a thorn in Micheál Martin's side.

Labour candidate Carrie Smyth is not strong enough to hold onto Eamon Gilmore's seat and the party will lose its representative in the area. 

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Dun Laoghaire

This is a four seat constituency.

Sean Barrett gets automatic re-election as outgoing Ceann Comhairle.

Meanwhile, Labour's Eamon Gilmore is retiring.

Two of the sitting TDs here are actively seeking re-election - Mary Mitchell-O'Connor (FG) and Richard Boyd-Barrett (AAA/PBP).

There are 11 candidates in the Dun Laoghaire constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as two for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil and one for the Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit group.

1. Richard Boyd-Barrett (AAA-PBP)

2. Mary Mitchell-O'’Connor (FG)

3. Mary Hanafin (FF)

4. Sean Barrett (FG) *AUTOMATIC RE-ELECTION*

This outcome reflects the re-election of the three outgoing TDs, Mitchell-O'Connor and Boyd-Barrett, and Ceann Comhaire Sean Barrett.

The only surprise is that Mary Hanafin will win back her old seat for Fianna Fáil, despite the lack of support for her in party headquarters.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Dun Laoghaire constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT