Yates' Prediction: Fine Gael will lose a seat to Sinn Féin in Louth

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

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General Election 2011 - Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny with Peter Fitzpatrick canvassing in Dundalk. Photo: RollingNews.ie/Sasko Lazarov/Phtotocall Ireland

Fine Gael will lose a seat to Sinn Féin in the Louth constituency, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Peter Fitzpatrick (FG), Fergus O'Dowd (FG), Ged Nash (LAB), Seamus Kirk (FF) and Gerry Adams (SF)

In 2011, Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams topped the poll here.

This time around there is a deliberate Sinn Féin strategy to spread their vote in Louth, which will enable them to take a second seat for Imelda Munster.

Sitting TD Peter Fitzpatrick for Fine Gael will lose his seat after a disorganised campaign - he pulled out of the race before changing his mind and re-entering the race.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.   

Louth constituency

This is a five seat constituency.

Four of the five sitting TDs are fighting for re-election; Fianna Fáil's Seamus Kirk is retiring.

The two largest urban areas are Dundalk to the north and Drogheda to the south of the region. You will see candidates elected from each of these two areas.

This is a border region where support for Sinn Féin is strong.

There are 16 candidates in the Louth constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as two for Sinn Féin, one for Fianna Fáil and one each for Fine Gael and Labour.

1. Gerry Adams (SF)

2. Imelda Munster (SF)

3. Declan Breathnach (FF)

4. Fergus O'’Dowd (FG)

5. Gerald Nash (LAB)

You can listen to Ivan Yates' constituency prediction on Newstalk.com's Louth constituency page.

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