Yates' Prediction: Fianna Fail will win a new seat in Offaly

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Kate Bopp, Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy, Barry Cowen, Christopher Fettes, Eddie Fitzpatrick, John Foley, Joe Hannigan, John Leahy, Carol Nolan, Teresa Ryan-Feehan, Ken Smollen, Independent, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Green Party, Renua, Sinn Féin, #GE16, General Election

Cllr Eddie Fitzpatrick via fiannafail.ie

Fianna Fáil will win a new seat in Offaly on Election Day - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (FG) and Barry Cowen (FF).

It is the only constituency in Ireland where there is a "spare seat" this election, because of the redrawing of constituency boundaries.

There is already anecdotal evidence to suggest that the opposition party are performing strongly on the canvas, enjoying more success with their message and policy proposals than the government parties.

Fianna Fáil will take the first seat for incumbent Barry Cowen (FF), but the shock will come when they also win a second seat for Eddie Fitzpatrick (FF). 

Fitzpatrick will take the seat because of electoral geography, and because of the party's strong support base here in the home of Barry Cowen's brother former Taoiseach Brian Cowen (FF).

Fine Gael have failed to run a second candidate and though Renua will mount a strong challenge for the seat the party's profile is too new and small to succeed.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Offaly constituency

There are three seats up for grabs here, following the region's split out from Laois. 24 electoral districts from North Tipperary are also now included in 'Offaly'.

There are only two sitting TDs, so there is a "spare seat", putting the candidates here in a unique position.

The economy will be the number one election issue in Offaly.

There are 11 declared candidates in the Offaly constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling it two for Fianna Fáil and one for Fine Gael.

1. Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (FG)

2. Barry Cowen (FF)

3. Eddie Fitzpatrick (FF)

Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy will re-take the first seat for Fine Gael easily.

For the second seat, Barry Cowen will take over the mantel for his brother Brian.

The third, and new seat will go to Fianna Fáil, for geographic reasons.

"Fine Gael will regret running only one seat" says Yates.

While Renua will challenge Fianna Fáil for the seat they will fail to take it because they are not well enough known.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's on Offaly constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT