Yates' Prediction: Councillor rejected by Fianna Fáil will win Limerick County seat

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Seamus Browne, Niall Collins, Alexander Cosgrave, James Heffernan, Mark Keogh, Tom Neville, Emmett O'Brien, Richard O'Donoghue, Patrick O'Donovan, Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil, Green Party, Social Democrats, Independent, Fine Gael, Labour, government, #GE16, General Election, February 26

Cllr Emmett O'Brien pictured beside his own billboard via @EmmettOBrienIND on Twitter

An Independent Councillor will pinch one of Fine Gael's two seats in Limerick County - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Dan Neville (FG), Patrick O'Donovan (FG) and Niall Collins (FF).

Councillor Emmett O'Brien, who is formerly of the Fianna Fáil gene pool, is running a formidable campaign and will swipe seat three from the government party.

Fianna Fáil controversially did not pick O'Brien for the party ticket, but he will win enough votes nonetheless.

That prediction comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Limerick County

Limerick County is a three seat constituency.

One of the sitting TDs, Fine Gael's Dan Neville is retiring - his son Tom Neville is running as a replacement.

The other two sitting TDs are running for re-election.

The electoral area retained its three seats after a review, but reclaimed part of the region that was previously in with North Kerry - which will have an effect on the vote, greatly favouring Fine Gael's Patrick O'Donovan.

There are nine candidates running for election in Limerick County - all of them are men.

This is the only constituency where no women are running. 

The youngest candidate in country, Alexander Cosgrave (22) is running for The Green Party.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result one for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil and one Independent. 

1. Patrick O'Donovan (FG)

2. Niall Collins (FF)

3. Emmett O'Brien (Ind)

Patrick O'Donovan (FG) and Niall Collins (FF) will hold onto their seats.

The perceived wisdom is that Fine Gael will take two seats here, but Yates disagrees calling that "lazy punditry".

In particular, he is predicting that the race for the third seat will be interesting - but Yates is giving it to Cllr Emmett O'Brien (Ind), who he has described as a "brilliant campaigner".

O'Brien is a former Fianna Fáil politician, but the party controversially failed to select him for the party ticket.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Limerick County constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT