Yates' Prediction: Labour newcomer will win seat in Kildare South

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Declan Crowe, Mary Kennedy, Renua, Martin Heydon, Suzanne McEneaney, Fiona McLoughlin-Healy, Sean O'Fearghail, Fiona O'Loughlin, Patricia Ryan, Mark Wall, Independent, Fine Gael, Green Party, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, Labour, General Election, #GE16, candidate, party, vote, poll, ballot, Feb 26, Enda Kenny, Taoiseach, leader

Cllr Mark Wall via Labourparty on Flickr

Labour's Mark Wall will win a seat in Leinster House for Kildare South on February 26th - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Martin Heydon (FG), Jack Wall (LAB) and Sean O'Fearghail (FF)

Wall's father, and sitting TD, Jack Wall is retiring and Labour has put son Mark on the ticket to retain supporters.

Pundit Yates predicts Cllr Mark Wall will be the last to take a seat in the constituency.

It comes as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.  

Kildare South

This is a three seat constituency, based around the Curragh camp and Newbridge.

The horse racing industry and the Defence Forces are major employers in the area.

Two of the three sitting TDs are seeking re-election, while Labour TD Jack Wall is retiring.  

There are nine candidates running in the Kildare South constituency.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil and one for Labour.

1. Martin Heydon (FG)

2. Sean O'Fearghail (FF)

3. Mark Wall (LAB)

Fine Gael's Martin Heydon will hold on to his seat, despite the difficulties he will face as a result of the redrawing of the constituency borders.

Deputy Sean O'Fearghail will win back his seat, in spite of concerns within Fianna Fáil that he faces a real threat from running mate Cllr Fiona O'Loughlin. O'Fearghail is said to have worked hard to keep O'Loughlin off the ticket, however she was eventually added by party headquarters.

The last and open seat is "troublesome", according to Yates. On balance he feels there is a traditional Labour vote here that will reward retiree Wall's family with a seat for son Mark Wall.

Wall's win will come because Fine Gael is not strong enough to win two seats, though they are talking up that possibility.

Sinn Féin will challenge for that last seat, but they will come up short - even if they show enormous growth.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Kildare South constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT