Yates' Prediction: 'Outstanding candidate' John Paul O'Shea could cause an upset in Cork North-West

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

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Image via johnpauloshea.ie

There's the potential for an upset in the Cork North-West constituency, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Aine Collins (FG), Michael Creed (FG), Michael Moynihan (FF)

Ivan observed, "this is a very rural constituency, made up of a small area of towns.

"It's the heart of rural Ireland, and that raises the question has the recovery come to this underdeveloped area?"

He added that this is a constituency that has been "totally dominated" by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in the past, and it has always been a 2:1 constituency - with other parties having struggled to make a breakthrough.

Cork North-West

Cork North-West is three-seat constituency, which is unchanged from the last election.

All three sitting TDs are running for re-election.

There are twelve candidates running in the constituency in total.

"The first certainty is that the dynasty, going back to Donal Creed... his son Michael Creed will top the poll again," Ivan predicted. "He might be down a couple of thousand, but he's the dominant figure here".

Ivan also expects Michael Moynihan to regain his seat, saying "it's an absolute no-brainer" that Deputies Moynihan and Creed will be re-elected, securing a seat for both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

However, when it comes to the final seat, Ivan is not so sure Fine Gael's Aine Collins will take a seat again.

"I think there can be upset here, because there's an outstanding candidate ready to leap onto the page - it is Councillor John Paul O'Shea," he explained.

Ivan observed that the Independent Councillor and current Mayor of Cork County received a "staggering" vote in the local elections. 

"There are other independents who will do well... if he can stay ahead of all of those, I think he will pick up more preferences than Aine Collins. Make no mistake - Fine Gael is putting this down as a banker two seats. I think there's going to be a shock here," he concluded.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one seat apiece for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and an Independent.

1. Michael Creed (FG)

2. Michael Moynihan (FF)

3. John Paul O'Shea (Independent)

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Cork North West constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT