Yates' Prediction: Labour's Ciara Conway will lose her seat in Waterford

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

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Ciara Conway. Image: RollingNews.ie

Labour TD Ciara Conway is likely to lose her seat in Waterford, according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: John Deasy (FG), Paudie Coffey (FG), Ciara Conway (LAB), John Halligan (IND)

"In the weekend polls, [showing] the combined figure of Fine Gael and Labour, the Government is not really breaking 40%," Ivan observed. "You can't get three out of four seats on 40% of the vote.

"A Government seat has to go, and it's already gone in my opinion. Ciara Conway was a surprise victor the last time. She's from Dungarvan. She's the sole Labour candidate. She's not going to get a great vote in the city. Unfortunately she is going to lose this seat".

Ivan says that Sinn Féin's David Cullinane is likely to take Deputy Conway's seat.

Waterford 

Waterford is a four-seat constituency, which is unchanged from the last election. 

All four sitting TDs are seeking re-election.

There are nine candidates running in Waterford - and it is the first constituency Newstalk Breakfast has looked at where there are more female candidates than male.

Ivan started by suggesting the geography of Waterford is important here, with a significant split between the city and other parts of the county. Currently, there are two candidates from Dungarvan, and two from the city.

John Deasy of Fine Gael will "comfortably" top the poll, according to Ivan. "Some people call him a maverick, but he's a great vote getter," Ivan observed.

Ivan believes the second seat will be a closer call, with Waterford City likely to elect two candidates - Sinn Féin's David Cullinane and Independent John Halligan.

The big fight, however, is for the final seat - "a classic battle between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil".

It's Fianna Fáil's Mary Butler and Fine Gael's Paudie Coffey in contention here. Ivan does not believe Councillor Butler will take the seat - but he's reserving the right to change his stance closer to polling day.

"It is actually unknowable at the moment, but as of today I am saying the fact that [Butler] has never stood for election before... stalwarts aren't standing... will she get the traction?

"With a possibility of changing my position - I will not change on the three certainties in my opinion - I am calling it for Paudie Coffey," he concluded. 

Predicted outcome 

Yates is calling the result as two seats for Fine Gael, one for Sinn Féin, and one Independent.

1. John Deasy (FG)

2. David Cullinane (SF)

3. John Halligan (Independent)

4. Paudie Coffey (FG)

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Waterford constituency page

Live from @ElectionNT