Yates' Prediction: Pat Buckley will win a seat for Sinn Féin in Cork East

Newstalk Breakfast looks at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

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Minister Sean Sherlock (LAB). Picture by: Niall Carson / PA Archive/PA Images

Updated Feb 25th 2016 11.45

Sinn Féin candidate Pat Buckley will win a seat for the party in Cork East, despite an earlier Newstalk prediction that defector Kieran McCarthy (IND) would be victorious.

Newstalk's political pundit Ivan Yates is changing the prediction he gave for the outcome of Friday's election.

Yates gave the forecast as part of Newstalk's series of constituency predictions for the General Election.

Independent McCarthy - formerly of Sinn Féin himself, but who left after a row with headquarters - looked like he might take a seat, but it is now believed the public will go with a more traditional party candidate instead.

Cobh man McCarthy will not win enough support from voters outside his local base.

Unfortunately for Labour, the revision does not change the outcomes for them - TD Sean Sherlock will still lose his seat.

Newstalk is now calling the result as two for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil and one for Sinn Féin. 

1. David Stanton (FG)

2. Kevin O'Keeffe (FF) 

3. Tom Barry (FG)

4. Pat Buckley (SF)

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Cork East constituency page.

You can see the original article below.

 

Labour's Sean Sherlock will lose his seat in Cork East next month - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Tom Barry (FG), David Stanton (FG), Sean Sherlock (LAB) and Sandra McLellan (SF).

Sherlock is the Minister of State for Overseas Development Aid - a portfolio that will not win him votes locally. That, coupled with the fact that he has not had a strong presence locally in the run-up to this election, will cause him to lose out to Fine Gael's Tom Barry for the Mallow seat.

Pundit Yates says it comes down to maths. Fine Gael will take two seats in this constituency. If the combined vote of Fine Gael and Labour is approximately 40% - according to latest polls - the two government parties will not be able to take 75% of the seats.

The forecast came as part of Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.

Cork East

There are four seats in this complex and controversial constituency.

Three of the four sitting TDs are seeking re-election; outgoing Sinn Féin TD Sandra McLellan will not contest the election after an internal party row.

Pat Buckley is running for Sinn Féin. The knock-on effect of party in-fighting has also pushed Cllr Kieran McCarthy into running as an Independent.

There was also conflict around Labour's nomination. Noel McCarthy wanted to be on the party ticket, but Labour decided to run only one candidate and he defected to Fine Gael.

There are 14 candidates running for election in Cork East.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as two Fine Gael, one Independent and one Fianna Fáil.

1. David Stanton (FG)

2. Kevin O'Keeffe (FF) 

3. Tom Barry (FG)

4. Kieran McCarthy (IND)

Cllr Kevin O'Keeffe will take the seond seat in this constituency. He is the son of former TD Ned O'Keeffe, and beat brother Ciaran to the Fianna Fáil nomination.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Cork East constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT