Yates' Prediction: Labour Minister will lose her seat in Cork North Central

Newstalk Breakfast is taking a look at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Newstalk Breakfast, Mick Barry, Thomas Gould, Billy Kelleher, Kathleen Lynch, Oliver Moran, Dara Murphy, Johnathan O'Brien, Ted Tynan, Thomas Kiely, Aislinn Tongue, Ger Keohane, Julie O'Leary, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Féin, Independent, Anti-Austerity Alliance, People Before Profit

Minister for Health Leo Varadkar (FG) and Labour Party Minister of State at the Department of Health Kathleen Lynch pictured at Budget 2016 briefing. Photo: RollingNews.ie

Labour Minister Kathleen Lynch will lose her seat in Cork North Central next month - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Dara Murphy (FG), Kathleen Lynch (LAB), Billy Kelleher (FF), Jonathan O'Brien (SF)

Three of the four sitting TDs will take seats in this constituency, but Minister Lynch will be the one to lose.

Instead, Anti-Austerity Alliance and People Before Profit candidate Mick Barry will take the fourth seat. He will join Kelleher, O'Brien and Dara Murphy in the Daíl.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.

Cork North-Central constituency

A four seat constituency, the boundaries here have been redrawn but no seats were lost.  

This working class constituency is largely based around Cork's north inner city, where pundit Ivan Yates was Fine Gael Director of Elections in 1994.

All four sitting TDs are seeking re-election.

A total of 12 candidates have declared for Cork North-Central.

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as one for Fianna Fáil, one Sinn Féin, one Fine Gael and one for the Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before Profit grouping.

Three sitting TDs will be returned.

1. Billy Kelleher (FF)

2. Jonathan O'Brien (SF)

3. Daragh Murphy (FG)

4. Mick Barry (AAA-PBP)

Labour will lose

Billy Kelleher, health spokesperson and Director of Elections for Fianna Fáil will top the poll.

Jonathan O'Brien will take a seat, but won't top the poll, even though Sinn Féin will get more votes than Fianna Fáil - because he doesn't have a running mate.

Daragh Murphy will succeed in winning a seat, proving any speculation to the contrary wrong.

According to Yates' forecast, Labour Minister Kathleen Lynch will lose her seat in Cork North Central.

"Kathleen Lynch will lose, and it won't be close", Yates says. "I think Kathleen Lynch is on a hiding to nothing, remember Labour were routed here in the local election".

Yates says Minister Lynch was reluctant to run in this election, for good reason.

This constituency was redrawn, with 12,000 votes transferred out of the city area - Mick Barry will benefit, taking the fourth seat. He is running on a water charges platform. 

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Cork North-Central constituency page.

Live from @ElectionNT