Yates' Prediction: Tipperary's Michael Lowry could poll highest in the country

Newstalk Breakfast is taking a look at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Newstalk, Breakfast, #GE16, General Election, Tipperary, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour, Independent, Sinn Féin, Green Party, Siobhan Ambrose, Jackie Cahill, Noel Coonan, Tom Hayes, Seamus Healy, Alan Kelly, Michael Lowry, Seamus Morris, Marie Murphy, Michael Smith, Caroline Hofman, Mattie McGrath, Gearóid Fitzgibbon, Michael Dillon

Independent TD Michael Lowry speaks to the media on the plinth of Leinster House in Dublin. Picture by: Julien Behal / PA Archive/PA Images

Updated Feb 25th 2016 12.05

Fianna Fáil's Michael Smith will win a seat in Tipperary.

Newstalk's political pundit Ivan Yates is changing the prediction he gave for the outcome of Friday's election.

Yates gave the forecast as part of Newstalk's series of constituency predictions for the General Election.

He had predicted that fellow Fianna Fáiler Jackie Cahill would take a seat, but he now believes that is not how the race will finish up.

Newstalk is still calling the result as one for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil, two Independents and one for Labour.

1. Michael Lowry (IND)

2. Seamus Healy (IND)

3. Tom Hayes (FG)

4. Michael Smith (FF)

5. Alan Kelly (LAB) 

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Tipperary constituency page.

You can see the original article below.

 

Michael Lowry will be one of the top vote-getters in the country this election, and will certainly take a seat in Tipperary - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates.

Sitting TDs: Michael Lowry (Ind), Minister Alan Kelly (LAB), Noel Coonan (FG), Tom Hayes (FG), Seamus Healy (Ind), Mattie McGrath (Ind)

Pundit Yates maintains that sitting TD Lowry, and Independent TD Michael Healy-Rae in the Kerry constituency, will be the two of the most popular candidates nationwide on polling day.

The forecast comes as part of Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' series of election predictions. In the weeks leading up to polling day, he is calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies.

Last time round Deputy Lowry won 14,000 votes, in a smaller three seat constituency; in 2016 he could get as many as 16,000 votes in the enhanced five-seat constituency he now stands in.

That is in spite of his well-publicised legal difficulties.

He will benefit from the inclusion of South Tipperary in the constituency - die-hard GAA supporters in that part of the country have never had a chance to vote for the ex-County Board Chairman. They credit him with organising funding for Semple Stadium.

Ivan Yates' other significant prediction for the region is that well-known Independent TD Mattie McGrath will lose his seat.

Tipperary constituency

Tipperary is a five-seat constituency, down from a six-seater.

All six sitting TDs from the old constituency are running for the five available seats, making this an exciting race to watch.

In total, 14 candidates will be vying for election in this complex constituency. 

Predicted outcome

Yates is calling the result as two Independents, one Fine Gael, one Fianna Fáil and one Labour.

1. Michael Lowry (IND)

2. Seamus Healy (Ind)

3. Tom Hayes (FG)

4. Jackie Cahill (FF)

5. Alan Kelly (LAB)

Michael Lowry (Ind) will top the poll, taking the first seat.

Seamus Healy (Ind) will take a seat, though he will not necessarily be second past the post.

Fine Gael are certain of a seat, and it will most likely go to Tom Hayes (FG)

Fianna Fáil will also take a seat - but Yates is predicting it will go to Jackie Cahill, who is running on a farming platform, and not Michael Smith as party insiders are forecasting. However, Yates says this situation could change in coming weeks.

Finally, Minister Alan Kelly (LAB) will narrowly win the final seat, beating off Noel Coonan (FG) and Mattie McGrath (Ind). Again, Yates says this outlook could change.

You can listen to Ivan Yates' prediction on Newstalk.com's Tipperary constituency page.