Yates' Prediction: Fine Gael will lose seat in Dublin Fingal as Minister targets re-election

Newstalk Breakfast takes a look at each election constituency, studying the candidates and predicting how they will perform

Newstalk, Fine Gael, Dublin Fingal, Lorraine Clifford Lee, Darragh O'Brien, Fianna Fáil, Independent, Clare Daly (IND), Roslyn Fuller (IND), Terry Kelleher (IND), Barry Martin (IND), Tony Murphy (IND), Louise O'Reilly (SF), Joe O'Brien (GP), Gerry Molloy (REN), General Election, GE16

Minister James Reilly, Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Alan Farrell TD, via Fine Gael

Fine Gael TD Alan Farrell will lose his seat in the Dublin Fingal constituency - according to Newstalk Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates' prediction.

He will lose out as party colleague Minister James Reilly fights to keep his seat.

Sitting TDs: Minister James Reilly (FG), Alan Farrell (FG), Brendan Ryan (LAB), Clare Daly (IND)

Newstalk's Breakfast presenter Ivan Yates will be calling the outcome for each of the 40 constituencies in the weeks leading up to polling day.

Independent Clare Daly and Labour party candidate Brendan Ryan are also vying for votes in this constituency - meaning all four sitting TDs are seeking re-election in a busy field featuring 13 candidates.

This five seat constituency, which replaces the old Dublin North, includes the fast-growing Swords area with its 18,000 new votes. 

Predicted outcome

Pundit Ivan Yates maintains Clare Daly, James Reilly, Darragh O'Brien (FF), Brendan Ryan (LAB) will all take seats, while the fifth seat will go to Sinn Féin's Louise O'Reilly - though it will be hard won.

Clare Daly will top the poll in this busy constituency, where Yates expects to see as many as ten counts.

Seperately, there is some speculation that Deputy Daly will not run for the Anti-Austerity Alliance, because she is not popular in that grouping.

"It ends up one, one, one, one, and one" says Yates: "The fragmentation of Irish politics is starting to appear. One Fine Gael, One Labour - two for the government - one Independent Socialist, one Sinn Féin, and one Fianna Fáil".

"Mé féin" Minister

According to Ivan Yates, James Reilly will not have a national profile in this election instead focusing on local issues.

That is because he is unlikely to be given another Ministerial portfolio in the next government, if Fine Gael get back in.

Yates predicts this "me féiner" attitude will cannibalise the vote and damage fellow Fine Gaeler Alan Farrell's chances.