The transfer in of some 27,000 voters from the Rathfarnham area of Dublin South dramatically changes the dynamic of this constituency. Even though there will be an extra seat, the huge shift in the social class demographic means that it is likely that two of the seats will go to candidates in the imported area.
It won’t impact on Sinn Féin retaining their seat, but it will be difficult for them to win an extra one, while Paul Murphy will also romp home. The Rathfarnham area should ensure that Fine Gael recovers the seat they lost in the by-election and the same area should be instrumental in putting Fianna Fáil back in the Dáil through John Lahart.
The final seat will probably be between Labour, Sinn Féin and another hard left candidate. The one caveat is whether either Katherine Zappone or Ronan McMahon (Renua) could marshal sufficient votes to mount a challenge. To do that you would suspect that that would eat into the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael votes and make one of their seats vulnerable.
However their transfers may well be enough to rescue one seat for Labour and the irony is that the bulk of these could come from TD Eamonn Maloney who has deserted Labour and will run as an Independent.
Yates's take: Yates is calling the result as one seat for the Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit group, two for Sinn Féin, one Fine Gael and one Fianna Fáil - with Paul Murphy will top the poll overall.
Colm Brophy is the leader of the Fine Gael group on South Dublin County Council. He has been a Councillor since being co-opted in 2008. He unsuccessfully contested the 2011 general (in Dublin South Central) and Seanad elections. He is a small business owner.
Declan Burke describes himself as a journalist and independent candidate. He contested the 2014 local elections - polling less than 5% of the vote - and the by-election later that year, getting less than 3%.
Seán Crowe was elected to the Dáil in 2002, lost his seat in 2007, but regained it in 2011. He has served on the local authority and as a community activist in the area.
Anne-Marie Dermody was co-opted onto South Dublin County Council in 2011 and was re-elected in 2014. She’s a self-employed solicitor.
Mick Duff is a South Dublin County Councillor since 2009. He’s the co-ordinator of a community drug treatment project. He was elected Mayor of South Dublin in his first year as a Councillor.
Francis Noel Duffy was elected to South Dublin County Council in 2014. He contested the by-election the constituency later that year, securing less than 2% of the first preference vote – but double what he had received in the 2011 general election. An architect, he lectures in DIT, and runs his own architectural design practice. He is married to the deputy leader of the Green Party, Catherine Martin.
Sandra Fay is an Anti Austerity Alliance Candidate for Dublin South West. She says she was prompted to join the AAA as a result of the banking crisis and bailout "that has crippled our country".
Peter Fitz is seeking election in the Dublin South West constituency as an Independent candidate. He is a founder of Our Children's Health, which is campaigning for a legal entitlement for any child diagnosed with a serious illness or congenital condition to a full medical card.
Sarah Holland is originally from Belfast but moved to Dublin 10 years ago. She was elected to South Dublin County Council in 2014. She is Mayor of the council.
Pamela Kearns is a Councillor on South Dublin County Council since 2009 and was re-elected in 2014. She owns and operates a pre-school in Templeogue. She contested the 2014 by-election in Dublin South West, securing 8.5% of the first preference vote. The Labour party had secured over 35% here in 2011 (electing 2 TDs).
John Lahart was elected to South Dublin County Council in 1999 and at each election since. He’s self employed, running his own Psychotherapy practice. A former school teacher, he has also worked as an advisor in Government (former Minister of State Tom Kitt).
Eamonn Maloney was elected to the Dáil in 2011 for Labour. In July 2015 he announced he would not contest the general election. In September 2015 he announced that following discussions with supporters he was resigning from Labour and would contest the election as an Independent. He was unhappy that Labour had gone ahead with running two candidates in the constituency. He was the only TD in the 31st Dáil not to claim expenses.
Ronan McMahon was elected as an Independent Councillor in 2014. He contested the by-election that year as an independent, and got just under 9% of the first preference vote. A qualified accountant who runs Snap printing in Tallaght, he will contest the election for Renua. He is the son of the former Fine Gael TD, Larry McMahon.
Paul Murphy won the Dublin South West by-election in 2014. He was co-opted to the European Parliament in 2011 (Joe Higgins seat) but failed to retain the seat in 2014 as the left vote was split with People Before Profit candidate Brid Smith, also standing in Dublin. From Goatstown and private school educated, he joined the Socialist Party in 2001. He has been active in protests against the water charges and other austerity measures.
Deirdre O’Donovan was elected as an Independent Councillor in 2014. She has worked with Independent TD Shane Ross. She believes that if you can help people, you should.
Frank O'Gorman is from Rathfarnham and has ran in four previous elections. His last outing was in 2014 when he got 93 votes.
Kerian Adam Quigley is Tallaght based graduate of UCD and UL. He is campaigning for a new generation of young TD's to tackle the ravages of austerity.
Steve Sinclair is a signatory to the 1 Year Initiative (1YI) which is a central plank of DDI's election campaign.
Joan Summerville-Molloy is a mother from Templeogue campaigning for Autism Awareness.
Karen Warren is a former Fine Gael Councillor. She was elected in 2004, lost her seat in 2009, and failed to get elected again in the 2014 local elections.
Katherine Zappone is a Senator since her nomination to the Seanad by An Taoiseach in 2011. Born in the United States she is married to Ann Louise Gilligan. She was the first openly lesbian member of the Oireachtas. A theologian, she became an Irish citizen in 1995.