An additional 18,000 voters largely from Swords and Portmarnock has led to an extra seat. You would be foolish to bet against Clare Daly topping the poll, especially as all of Swords is reunited in one constituency.
The local elections suggest that Labour should retain their seat. Fianna Fáil can get back one of the two lost in 2011, although by adding a second candidate because of gender quota issues they have made it more difficult than it needs to be - especially as Lorraine Clifford Lee is from the same area of the constituency (Malahide/Portmarnock) as Darragh O’Brien.
Fine Gael is also certain of one, and will be in contention for another. Sinn Féin finally made an impression in this area with 10.7% in 2014, having not fielded a candidate in 2011.
There will be an almighty battle for the last seat between Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and a combination of hard left candidates. Should Daly have a big enough surplus, it could swing the seat left. Otherwise Fine Gael just might hold on.
Ivan Yates's take: Ivan maintains Clare Daly, James Reilly, Darragh O'Brien (FF), Brendan Ryan (LAB) will all take seats, while the fifth seat will go to Sinn Féin's Louise O'Reilly - though it will be hard won.
Lorraine Clifford contested the Dublin City Council elections in 2014 but didn’t get elected. A solicitor, she is married to the political editor of the Irish Mail on Sunday, John Lee. She is a member of the Fianna Fáil Ard Comhairle and lives in Portmarnock.
Clare Daly (born 1968) was elected as a Socialist Party TD in 2011 on her 4th attempt to win a Dáil seat. She had been elected to Fingal County Council in 1999, 2004 and 2009. She left the Socialist Party and now describes herself as ‘the independent socialist’ TD for the constituency. A former airport worker, Clare has been involved in many campaigns against the property tax, water charges and has made several attempts in the Dáil for the repeal of the 8th Amendment.
De Brun is a GP from Rush who is campaigning on medical and education issues.
Alan Farrell was elected in 2011 on his first attempt in a general election. He had been elected to Fingael County Council in 2004, and regained the seat in 2009. A full time public representative, he has owned and run a letting and estate agency.
Roslyn Fuller is an international law lecturer and author and has decided to contest the general election as an Independent. Born in Canada and a former model, she is campaigning in the election on a platform of digital democracy.
Terry Kelleher is a former Balbriggan Town Councillor for the Socialist Party.
Barry Martin was elected to Fingal County Council in 2014. He has fought campaigns against the Local Property Tax and Water Charges.
Molloy has been a GP in Malahide since 1986.
Tony Murphy is an Independent Councillor on Fingal County Council since 2014. He is contesting under the Independents Alliance banner.
Joe O’Brien is originally from Cork but lives in Dublin. He narrowly missed out in a seat on Fingal County Council in the local elections in 2014. He works with Crosscare, the social support agency. He says trust in politicians is at an all time low and he wants to change that.
Darragh O’Brien was elected to the Dáil in 2007 for the then Dublin North constituency but lost his seat in 2011. He was then elected to the Seanad and became the Fianna Fáil leader in the upper house. He was originally co-opted to Fingal County Council in March 2004 and won a seat in the local elections that year.
Fergal O'Connell is unemployed and is from Finglas. He got just 23 votes in Swords in 2014.
Louise O’Reilly is a full-time trade union organiser and is passionate about workers rights and fighting inequality. From Crumlin, her selection to challenge for a seat in what is the North of County Dublin and a constituency that she doesn’t live in has taken some even in Sinn Féin by surprise.
James Reilly is the Deputy Leader of Fine Gael. He’s the outgoing Minister for Children, having served also as Minister for Health in the 31st Dáil. First elected in 2007, he regained the seat in 2011. A general practitioner, he is a former President of the Irish Medical Organisation. He was one of Enda Kenny’s staunchest allies in the failed heave by Richard Bruton in 2010.
Brendan Ryan was elected in 2011 having failed to secure a seat in 2007. He was a Senator between 2007 and 2011. Brendan is a full-time public representative having worked in the food and chemicals industries. Brendan is the younger brother of Seán Ryan, who was a TD and Senator for the Labour party in Dublin North.