There should be a special prize for calling this result correctly. Two three-seaters into one five-seater is bad enough, but throw in Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin (both parties don’t currently have a seat) plus high profile Independents and smaller parties, and it is the basis for a political thriller.
Based on the 2014 local elections it would be one each for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin with two others. However with so many big hitters in the field those results are merely a guide.
The only seat you could be certain about is FG and is probably Richard Bruton, although he is not helped by having two running mates. Fianna Fáil have enough for a seat, but with two candidates and the possibility of votes lost to Senator Averil Power, they could well come up short.
Sinn Féin has their main base in the north of the constituency, and if they can add a couple of thousand votes from the south should get home. Meanwhile Renua will pray that Terence Flanagan’s 2011 vote is more personal than a Fine Gael vote.
Finian McGrath should get back, and while Tommy Broughan is also favoured, his chances will be impacted by both Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats recruit Cian O’Callaghan, who originally was elected for Labour. There are also several hard left candidates all vying for the same vote.
This leaves Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, who must feel as if he is under siege - it will take a miracle for him to survive.
Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as one for Fine Gael, two Independents, one Fianna Fáil and one for Sinn Féin.
Aodhan O’Riordain is a former school principal who won a Dáil seat in 2011. He is the current Minister of State in a number of departments including responsibility for the national drugs strategy, communities, culture and equality after he was promoted to the junior ministerial ranks in 2014 when Joan Burton became Tánaiste and Labour leader. He was a Dublin City Councillor from 2004-2011.
Tommy Broughan has been a TD since 1992. He is now an Independent after losing the Labour Party Whip in December 2011 (he had also lost the whip in 1994 and 2010, but had returned to the party) when he refused to back a Government motion to extend the bank guarantee (which Labour had originally opposed in 2008). He has touted forming a Social Democratic Union, unconnected to the new Social Democrats party.
Richard Bruton is a Dáil deputy since 1982. He is the outgoing Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation. He was the deputy leader of Fine Gael from 2002-2010 until the failed heave against Enda Kenny. He is the younger brother of former Taoiseach, John Bruton.
Paul Clarke contested the 2014 local elections but didn’t win a seat. He also contested the 2011 general election, securing less than 1% of the vote. He describes himself as a Pro-Life candidate and is an advocate for people’s involvement in decision making under article 28A of the constitution.
The Green Party's Donna Cooney has previously unsuccessfully run for a Dáil seat in Dublin North East and Dublin North Central. She was a Dublin City Councillor between 1996 and 1999. She is an artist and part-time teacher.
Terence Flanagan was elected in 2007 for Fine Gael and retained the seat in 2011. He was expelled from the party in 2013 after refusing to vote for the Protection of Life During Pregnancy legislation. He was a founding member of Renua in 2015. He performed badly in an RTE radio interview, unable to answer questions about party policies. In 2008 he made a Dáil speech that was remarkably similar to an earlier one by Joan Burton. He later admitted it had been copied and apologised.
Indepedent candidate Jimmy Guerin won a local council seat in 2014 following an unsuccessful general election campaign in 2011. He is a brother of a brother of the murdered Sunday Independent journalist Veronica Guerin.
Seán Haughey is the son of former Taoiseach, Charles Haughey. He was a TD for Dublin North Central from 1992 until 2011. He has served as a Minister of State. He was elected to Dublin City Council in 2014. He lost the selection convention for the Dublin Bay North ticket, but was later added to the ticket by the party, causing outrage with Councillor Deirdre Heney.
Deirdre Heney is a Dublin City Councillor since 1999. She has worked for Aer Lingus, Aer Rianta, as a Parliamentary Assistant and is a qualified barrister. She won the convention for Fianna Fáil to be the candidate in the constituency and was outraged with the party leader when former deputy Seán Haughey was also added to the ticket.
John Lyons was elected to Dublin City Council in 2014 for the People Before Profit Alliance. He describes himself as a revolutionary socialist. He contested the general election in Dublin North Central in 2011, securing less than 4% of the vote.
Micheál MacDonncha has been a Dublin City Councillor since 2011. A Parliamentary Assistant to deputy Caoimhghin O’Caolain he has been active in the North East part of the constituency working with Councillor Larry O’Toole. He has edited An Phoblacht and has been a member of the Sinn Féin Ard Comhairle.
Finian McGrath was first elected to the Dáil in 2002 and has retained his seat at each election since. A former teacher and now full-time public representative, he’s originally from Galway. He did a deal with Fianna Fáil to support the coalition Government after the 2007 election, but withdrew the support following the 2009 budget in October 2008. He chaired the Dáil Technical Group after the 2011 election, but resigned from the position in 2012 when Mick Wallace joined the alliance. He is standing as part of the Shane Ross Independent’s Alliance.
Denise Mitchell is a Dublin City Councillor since 2014. A long-time activist for Sinn Fein, she is a former shop steward and describes herself as ‘Coolock born and bred’.
Cian O’Callaghan has been a Fingal County Councillor since 2009 when he was elected for Labour and he was elected as an Independent in 2014. A former Mayor of Fingal he was critical of the Labour party in Government and formerly left them in July 2013. In September 2015 he was unveiled as a candidate for the Social Democrats.
Michael O’Brien was elected to Dublin City Council in 2014. He’s been a Socialist Party and trade union activist for over 20 years. He’s campaigned against the household and property charges and now the water charges in both Wicklow and North Dublin.
Proinsias O'Conarain IND. O'Conarain is from Raheny and works in property maintenance.
Damien O'Neill is running as an Independent candidate.
Naoise O’Muiri has been a Dublin City Councillor since 2004 and was Lord Mayor in 2012-2013. He was unsuccessful in the Dublin North Central constituency in 2011. An engineering graduate, he is self-employed. He is a big sports fanatic and a Gaeilgeoir.
Averil Power was elected to the Seanad for Fianna Fáil in 2011 after failing to win a Dáil seat in Dublin North East. She left the party in 2015 and is running as an Independent. A former advisor to Mary Hanafin, she contested the local elections in 2009, but failed to win a seat. She is married to Fionnan Sheahan, Editor of the Irish Independent.
Stephanie Regan lost out on a seat in the 2014 local elections. A sister of the former Fine Gael Senator Eugene Regan, she’s one of three Fine Gael candidates on the ticket in the constituency. A psychotherapist, she says she got involved in politics prompted by the economic collapse and a realisation that it isn’t always up to someone else to fix what is wrong.