Wicklow

Quick facts:

  • 5-seater 
  • 5 sitting TDs: Simon Harris (FG), Andrew Doyle (FG), Anne Ferris (LAB), Stephen Donnelly (SD), Billy Timmons (REN)
  • Ministerial representation: Minister of State Simon Harris
  • Population: 141,012
  • 2011 poll topper: Andrew Doyle, Fine Gael
  • Most likely to lose: Anne Ferris, Labour; Andrew Doyle, Fine Gael
  • One to watch: Andrew Doyle, Fine Gael

Fianna Fáil has no TD for the first time since 1923, but if the local elections are any guide then they should get one seat back. Fine Gael will also get one, but their other two seats are under real threat with Billy Timmons leaving to be one of the founders of Renua. Wicklow is effectively a four-seater and a one-seater, with the latter on the other side of the mountain in Baltinglass which the Timmons family has won at every election since 1968.

The last seat in 2011 was won by Stephen Donnelly by just 112 votes from John Brady of Sinn Féin. Both men are in the field again, but this time both may be elected. The only caveat is that Donnelly is now a member of a party - the Social Democrats - rather than an Independent, and it will be interesting to see if that has an impact on his support.

In any case he will probably hoover up a lot of Anne Ferris’s 2011 vote, which will leave Labour without a seat.

Possible result is 1 FG (-2), 1 FF (+1), 1 SF (+1), 1 SD (+1), 1 REN (+1), 0 LAB (-1).

Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as two for Fine Gael, one for Sinn Féin, one for Fianna Fáil and one for the Social Democrats.