Offaly

Quick facts:

  • New 3-seater
  • 2 sitting TDs: Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (FG), Barry Cowen (FF)
  • Ministerial representation: None
  • Population: 87,640
  • 2011 poll topper: Barry Cowen, Fianna Fáil (of Offaly candidates)
  • One to watch: John Leahy, Renua

As a standalone constituency for the first time, the two sitting Offaly based TDs from Laois-Offaly should have no difficulty in retaining their seats. But while Barry Cowan (Fianna Fáil) and Marcella Corcoran Kennedy (Fine Gael) can sleep relatively well, it will be an intriguing battle for the final seat.

Sinn Féin, on the back of a decent result in 2014 - they got over 6,000 votes and had all three candidates elected and topped the poll in Tullamore - will believe they can take a seat. Fianna Fáil also feel they have a chance of a second seat, but will be dependent on a significant surplus from Barry Cowan.

However Renua’s first recruit John Leahy and Independent (ex-Fianna Fáil) John Foley got 9,300 votes between them in 2011. If either can get the third place after the first count, they may well find themselves heading to Leinster House.

The final outcome could well be determined by the 7,500 voters coming in from the Borrisokane area of Tipperary.

Possible result is 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND or RN (+1).

Ivan's take: Yates is calling the results as two for Fianna Fáil and one for Fine Gael.