Dublin North-West

Quick facts:

  • 3-seater
  • Sitting TDs: John Lyons (LAB), Dessie Ellis (SF), Roisin Shortall (SD)
  • Ministerial representation: None
  • Population: 90,534
  • 2011 poll topper: Roisin Shortall (then Labour), Social Democrats
  • Most likely loser: John Lyons, Labour Party
  • One to watch: Noel Rock, Fine Gael

In arguably the most deprived constituency in Dublin, there is little doubt where the majority of the votes will go. Sinn Féin and Roisin Shortall, co-founder of the new Social Democrats party, will be the first two home, leaving the last seat up for grabs.

This was the only constituency in 2011 that didn’t elect a Fine Gael TD, and that’s not going to change this time. Fianna Fáil is in with a shout, although John Lyons could still rescue one Labour seat.

Indeed it may be that support from hard left voters could choose Lyons as a better option than Fianna Fáil when they give their preferences.

Possible result is 1 SF, 1 SD (+1), 1 LAB (-1).

Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as one for Sinn Féin, one for the Social Democrats and one for Fine Gael.