Dublin Bay North

Quick facts:

  • New 5-seater
  • Sitting TDs: Richard Bruton (FG), Sean Kenny (LAB), Aodhan O'Riordain (LAB), Finian McGrath (IND), Terence Flanagan (REN), Tommy Broughan (IND)
  • Ministerial representation: Richard Bruton, Fine Gael; Minister of State Aodhan O’Riordain, Labour
  • Population: 146,512
  • 2011 poll topper: Richard Bruton, Fine Gael and Terence Flanagan, Renua (then Fine Gael)
  • Most likely loser: Aodhán O’Riordain, Labour
  • One to watch: Aodhán O’Riordain, Labour

There should be a special prize for calling this result correctly. Two three-seaters into one five-seater is bad enough, but throw in Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin (both parties don’t currently have a seat) plus high profile Independents and smaller parties, and it is the basis for a political thriller.

Based on the 2014 local elections it would be one each for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin with two others. However with so many big hitters in the field those results are merely a guide.

The only seat you could be certain about is FG and is probably Richard Bruton, although he is not helped by having two running mates. Fianna Fáil have enough for a seat, but with two candidates and the possibility of votes lost to Senator Averil Power, they could well come up short.

Sinn Féin has their main base in the north of the constituency, and if they can add a couple of thousand votes from the south should get home. Meanwhile Renua will pray that Terence Flanagan’s 2011 vote is more personal than a Fine Gael vote.

Finian McGrath should get back, and while Tommy Broughan is also favoured, his chances will be impacted by both Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats recruit Cian O’Callaghan, who originally was elected for Labour. There are also several hard left candidates all vying for the same vote.

This leaves Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, who must feel as if he is under siege - it will take a miracle for him to survive.

Possible result is 1 FG (-1), 1 FF (+1), 1 SF (+1), 2 IND (+1), LAB 0 (-3).

Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as one for Fine Gael, two Independents, one Fianna Fáil and one for Sinn Féin.