Fianna Fáil lost both their seats in 2011 which was the first time in the history of this constituency that they had no representation.
A mismanagement of the vote cost Labour a second seat in 2011 which benefited Sinn Féin, but even winning one seat this time will be a struggle unless the Sherlock name adds several percentage points to the 11% from 2011.
Sinn Féin has been rent by internal disputes which have seen sitting TD Sandra McLellan deciding not to run in the General Election. There have also been expulsions and suspensions and Sinn Féin is now under pressure to retain their seat and this will give hope to Sean Sherlock in his quest to retain his Labour seat.
While Fine Gael is certain to retain at least one of their two seats, retention of the second is very dependent on the performance of former Fine Gael TD and current Senator Paul Bradford. While he is unlikely to win a seat, he might do sufficient damage to Fine Gael to compromise their second seat.
Possible result is 2 FG (0), 1 FF (+1), 1 LAB, 0 IND (0), 0 SF (-1).
Ivan's take: Yates is calling the result as two Fine Gael, one Independent and one Fianna Fáil - with Labour's Sean Sherlock losing his seat in Cork East.